江南体育-阿尔梅里亚主场告捷，脱离降级区

　　Could Ms Le Pen hold a referendum on ‘Frexit’?

　　勒庞能够举行一场“法国退欧”全民公投吗？

　　A victory by far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the French elections in May is seen by many investors as potentially fatal for the euro and even the EU itself.

　　在许多投资者看来阿尔梅里亚主场告捷，脱离降级区，如果极右翼领导人马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)在5月阿尔梅里亚主场告捷，脱离降级区的法国选举中获胜阿尔梅里亚主场告捷，脱离降级区，对欧元、甚至欧盟(EU)而言都可能是致命的。

　　While polls suggest she will lose the election in the second round, her support has been inching up, leading to a spike in French bond yields as investors sell debt.

　　尽管民意测验显示，她将在第二轮投票中落败，但她的支持率一直节节上升，导致投资者在抛售债券、法国债券收益率飙升。

　　Market concerns centre on fears that, if elected, she would push ahead with her economic campaign promises: drastically renegotiating France’s membership of the EU, including pulling out of the euro, and then holding a referendum on the new relationship.

　　市场人士的主要担忧是，如果勒庞在选举中获胜，她将落实自己在经济方面的竞选承诺：彻底就法国的欧盟成员国身份进行重新谈判，包括退出欧元区，然后就法国与欧盟的新关系举行全民公投。

　　However, according to economists, political scientists and constitutional experts, implementing these promises could prove difficult.

　　然而，经济学家、政治学家和宪法专家表示，这些承诺履行起来可能很困难。

　　Could Le Pen radically reform the EU from the inside?

　　勒庞可能从内部对欧盟进行彻底改革吗？

　　National Front officials insist France is a top-tier EU member and cannot be ignored. It would be possible to secure reforms to the euro, free movement of people, or primacy of EU law.

　　国民阵线(National Front)官员们坚称，法国是欧盟的最重要成员国之一，不可以被忽视。促成针对欧元、人员自由流动或者欧盟法律至高无上地位的改革，是有可能办到的。

　　“France is a founding member — we are not like the UK or Greece. When we stamp our feet, people are going to listen,” said one senior party figure.

　　“法国是欧盟的创始成员国——阿尔梅里亚主场告捷，脱离降级区我们跟英国或希腊不一样。当我们跺脚时，人们会听我们说话，”一名国民阵线重要人物表示。

　　Others scoff at the idea she would succeed in fundamentally changing France’s relationship with the EU. They point to the failure of the UK to win any meaningful reforms before a Brexit vote and to the radical nature of FN demands — the end of the common currency and free movement of people.

　　也有人对认为勒庞将成功地从根本上改变法国与欧盟关系的想法嗤之以鼻。他们指出，英国在退欧投票前就未能争取到对欧盟的任何有意义的改革阿尔梅里亚主场告捷，脱离降级区；他们还指出，国民阵线的要求带有激进性——他们要求终结共同货币，中止人员自由流动。

　　Since France’s EU partners are unlikely to agree to dismantle the bloc, any referendum would be likely to become a plebiscite on leaving the EU.

　　鉴于法国在欧盟的伙伴国不大可能同意解散这一集团，任何全民公决都有可能成为是否退出欧盟的投票。

　　Could Ms Le Pen hold a referendum on ‘Frexit’?

　　勒庞能够举行一场“法国退欧”全民公投吗？

　　It is not impossible, but it is unlikely.

　　不是没有可能，但可能性不太大。

　　France has a written constitution that states that “the Republic is part of the European Union”. So a “Frexit” would require a constitutional change.

　　法国有一份成文宪法，其中规定，“法兰西共和国是欧盟的一部分”。所以，“法国退欧”将需要修改宪法。

　　Under Article 89, any constitutional change needs to be proposed by the government, not the president. Then it has to be approved by both the upper and the lower houses and then either by public vote in a referendum or by a majority of 60 per cent of Congress.

　　根据法国宪法第89条，修宪需要由政府、而不是总统来提议。然后，修宪必须得到议会上院和下院的批准，接下来要么由公民投票通过，要么以六成多数获得议会通过。

　　This means that, if she wanted to call a referendum, a President Le Pen would need a majority in the June legislative elections. “She would need a huge majority,” said Philippe Cossalter, a law professor at Saarlandes University.

　　这意味着，如果当上总统后的勒庞想召集一次全民公投，那么她将需要在6月的立法选举中赢得多数席位。“她将需要赢得过半席位，”萨尔大学(Saarlandes University)法学教授菲利普?科撒勒特(Philippe Cossalter)说。

　　The FN needs to win 289 out of 577 parliamentary seats in June for a majority, up from two at the moment. The party only has two seats in the 348-seat Senate, where elections for half the chamber are due in September.

　　国民阵线需要在6月的立法选举中赢得国民议会全部577个席位中的289个才能过半数，目前该党仅拥有两个席位。该党目前在348席的参议院里仅拥有两个席位，今年9月，参议院将举行半数议员的换届选举。

　　“A Le Pen presidency without a majority in the house would be unlikely to result in a referendum on the EU,” said Guillaume Menuet, an economist a Citigroup. He argues that the best-case scenario for the FN is winning 100 seats in parliament.

　　“如果勒庞当选总统，却未在议会取得多数席位，那么最终就不大可能举行法国退欧公投，”花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家纪尧姆?默尼埃(Guillaume Menuet)说。他认为，国民阵线最理想的结果也不过是在国民议会赢得100个席位。

　　Is there a way round this?

　　是否有办法绕开这个障碍？

　　Under Article 11 of the French constitution, the president can unilaterally call a referendum, although — in theory — such a vote cannot change the constitution. In 1962, however, Charles de Gaulle succeeded in changing the constitution after invoking a referendum under Article 11.

　　法国宪法第11条规定，总统可以单方面召集全民公决，不过——在理论上——这一投票不能更改宪法。然而，1962年，查尔斯?戴高乐(Charles de Gaulle)成功地依据第11条召集全民公决，更改了宪法。

　　Senior FN officials have said that Ms Le Pen would try to do the same thing. But Article 11 has since been modified by Article 61, requiring a sign-off by the constitutional court before a vote takes place. According to Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo, Ms Le Pen would find herself “in front of the French constitutional courts” if she tried to use Article 11. The courts would be likely to block such an action, he said.

　　国民阵线高级官员表示，勒庞将努力如法炮制。但后来，宪法第61条对第11条进行了修订，要求全民公决必须事先获得宪法法院的批准。投行奥多(Oddo)首席经济学家布鲁诺?卡瓦利耶(Bruno Cavalier)表示，如果勒庞想使用第11条的话，她将发现自己“面对法国的宪法法院”。他说，宪法法院可能会阻止这种做法。

　　Any other snags?

　　还有其他障碍吗？

　　Even if Ms Le Pen could organise a vote, polls suggest that the French people do not want to leave the euro. A Eurobarometer poll in October found that 53 per cent of people thought that the euro was a “good thing for their country” compared with 37 per cent who thought it was a “bad thing”.

　　即便勒庞能够组织起来一场投票，民意调查显示，法国民众并不想退出欧元区。去年10月欧洲民意调查中心(Eurobarometer)进行的一次民调发现，53%的人认为欧元“有利于法国”，而认为欧元对法国“有害”的人只占37%。

　　Since then, Ms Le Pen has tried to soften the message. She has suggested a “common currency” — similar in structure to the European Currency Unit, or Ecu, that preceded the euro — that would exist in parallel with the franc. However, this would still be tantamount to the end of monetary union.

　　自那以来，勒庞开始尝试软化语气。她提议推出一种与法郎并存的“共同货币”——在结构上类似于欧元之前的欧洲货币单位(Ecu)。然而，这将仍相当于终结欧洲货币联盟。

　　Some analysts think financial markets will go into a tailspin if Ms Le Pen is elected, regardless of the nuances of French constitutional law.

　　有些分析师认为，只要勒庞在选举中获胜，金融市场就将陷入混乱，这一结果不会因法国宪法的细节而改变。

　　Harvinder Sian, an analyst at Citi, said: “If she wins, the market will go into panic mode,” prompting an “existential crisis” for the EU and potential “leakage of liquidity” from the banks.

　　花旗分析师哈文德?希安(Harvinder Sian)表示，“如果她获胜，市场将进入恐慌模式”，使欧盟面临一场“关系生死存亡的危机”，并可能导致各银行“流动性漏出”。

　　If she lost a referendum, what happens?

　　如果她在全民公决中失败，会发生什么？

　　Ms Le Pen has said she would resign if she lost an EU referendum. Leaving the euro is central to her economic policy. She argues that a devalued franc would restore the competitiveness of French workers. EU rules would also prevent her from implementing many of her other economic policies, which include “intelligent protectionism” and giving preference to French workers over foreign ones.

　　勒庞表示，如果在退欧公投中失败，她将辞职。退出欧元区是她的经济政策的核心内容。她主张，贬值的法郎将恢复法国工人的竞争力。欧盟规则也将妨碍她执行她的许多其他经济政策，其中包括“聪明的保护主义”，还有在法国工人和外国工人中优先前者。

　　What about the rest of her domestic programme?

　　她其余的国内政策计划呢？

　　The French constitution gives significant powers to the president, particularly in foreign policy and defence. But for the day-to-day business of running the country, the vast majority of decisions by a French president need parliamentary approval.

　　法国宪法授予总统重大的权力，尤其在对外政策和防务方面。但在国家的日常治理方面，法国总统的绝大部分决定都需要得到国民议会的批准。

　　Again, her probable lack of a parliamentary majority would make it difficult to push through her wider agenda — which includes slashing the number of immigrants and beefing up the police force.

　　她很可能拿不到国民议会多数席位，这一点将再次使她很难推进自己的整个议程——包括减少移民和加强警力。

　　There have been three occasions in France’s postwar history where voters chose a parliament that opposed the president, under François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. Most of these “cohabitations” did not last long.

　　在战后法国历史中，选民有三次选出了与总统对立的国民议会——在弗朗索瓦?密特朗(François Mitterrand)和雅克?希拉克(Jacques Chirac)当总统的时候。这些“共治”大多不持久。

　　A prime minister can fall back on article 49:3, used several times by the current government to push through reform packages without parliament’s approval. But that would also be seen a symbol of failure. Ms Le Pen last year said that the use of 49:3 was an “admission of weakness”.

　　政府总理可以诉诸宪法第49条第3段的规定，现任法国政府已多次利用该规定，在未得到国民议会批准的情况下推进改革计划。但是，这也将被视为失败的标志。勒庞去年表示，利用该规定是“承认软弱”。

　　译者/何黎

　　文章来源：https://www.ftchinese.com/story/001071784/ce

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